Opinion Polls | Andrew Gwynne

Is it 1983? Fire up the Quattro!

April 17th, 2010 by Andrew Gwynne

Last night I watched Ashes to Ashes on BBC1. For those who didn’t get to see it, it is set in 1983, and the storyline last night was linked to the General Election of that year.

The relevance to this post was a piece of footage of the election, showing Roy Jenkins, one of the gang of four who left Labour in 1981 to form the Social Democratic Party; The BBC news commentator said “Mr Jenkins is buoyed up by recent polls placing the Alliance ahead of Labour”… ominous stuff following the first-ever televised leaders’ debate this year.

As I type, the dust has barely settled on the YouGov/Sun poll last night showing a massive bounce for the Lib Dems, just pushing Labour into third place. Now there are reports of two other polls showing a similar trend (though ICM still has Labour in second place).

Of course none of us really knows how the debate will affect the dynamics of the remainder of the campaign. Can the Lib Dems solidify their position, or have they peaked too early? Who knows? And frankly it is pointless speculating. What we have seen is our politics (and this election) getting interesting. When I wrote my blog piece on the February polls, and the speculation of a hung parliament, it was just that – speculation. Now it is looking more and more likely as an outcome.

Even before the debates, the Tory leads in most polls were not quite enough to deliver them a majority in the new House of Commons on a uniform swing (though with local factors and a concentrated effort in the marginals and a non-uniform swing in key seats it was actually possible). Now, with each of the main parties appearing to be very close to each other with around a third of the votes each, a hung parliament is looking very likely indeed.

Back in 1983, and because of our electoral system, the surge in support for the SDP/Liberal Alliance didn’t translate into seats. It did however help to deliver a massive Conservative majority by depriving Labour of seats it needed to hold (and others it needed to win back which it had lost in 1979), and it pretty much kept them out of power until the Blair landslide of 1997.

If the current poll trends are to be believed (and they may settle back down into the pre-debate positions in a few days), and because of the same electoral system, Labour on around 30% would win just short of 300 seats and would be the largest party in the House of Commons. The Tories and the Lib Dems also on around 30% would win something like 200 and 100 seats respectively.

Unlike in 1983, the present Lib Dem surge is actually a disaster for the Tories. Undoubtedly, if replicated in the election, the current polls would spell the end of any hope of a Conservative majority. The Cameron project will have spectacularly failed. The scale of the Tory slump is really clear when yesterday’s YouGov/Sun poll is compared with the YouGov/Sun poll from just TWO days earlier:

14^th April Con: 41%, Lab 32%, LD 18%

16^th April Con: 33%, Lab 28%, LD 30%

17th April Con: 33%, Lab 30%, LD 29% (Update at 9pm)

Nothing yet is written in stone. There’s still two debates and three weeks left to go. The Alliance surge of 1983 didn’t in the end ‘break the mould’ of British politics. Will 2010 be different?

Tags [ Conservative, Election, Hung Parliament, Labour, LibDem, Opinion Polls, parliament, United Kingdom ]

Categories [ General Election 2010, Opinion Polls, UK Politics ]

Comments [ 9 ]

Andrew’s addendum

February 24th, 2010 by Andrew Gwynne

POLLS UPDATE:

Late last night on Twitter, @toryatsea (yes I do have quite a few Tory friends on Twitter, I know!) was bemoaning the ‘poll obsessives’ – something I concede from my sick bed, I have become. This was following the latest YouGov tracker poll for The Sun, continuing to show only a 6% Tory lead.

The tracker poll is an interesting beast. My understanding is there is a set sample and each day, the oldest data drops off and a similar new sample is added. In theory, any switches in support over events, should be immediately apparent, rather than having to wait for the next monthly poll to be produced. Of course, the usual points about margins of error, etc., still apply.

The most interesting thing about the YouGov tracker (as at 24^th February in any case) is that there has been very little movement, despite all the media hype over ‘Bully-gate’. Whether this factors into subsequent polls still remains to be seen, but the YouGov tracker is also in line with all the other current published polls (except the Angus Reid polls which are wildly out on anything else published!)

YouGov Tracker Poll:

	CON	LAB	LD	Lead
24 Feb	38%	32%	17%	Con +6%
23 Feb	39%	33%	17%	Con +6%
19 Feb	39%	33%	17%	Con +6%
18 Feb	39%	32%	18%	Con +7%
17 Feb	39%	30%	18%	Con +9%

VULTURE FUNDS:

My Debt Relief (Developing Countries) Bill has its second reading on Friday. As I mentioned in my earlier blog piece, Sally Keeble MP (pictured) has very kindly agreed to take the Bill forward for me on Friday – and until I can properly return to work following my recent health problems. The text of the Bill and Explanatory Notes can be found here.

And here’s a piece from today’s Guardian too.

Tags [ Bills, Conservative, Election, Hung Parliament, Labour, legislation, LibDem, Opinion Polls, Vultures ]

Categories [ International, Opinion Polls, UK Politics ]

Comments [ 0 ]

How hung? (The next parliament!)

February 21st, 2010 by Andrew Gwynne

A few weeks back, I did warn you that politicians were obsessed by the polls, and particularly as an election approaches. I suppose after this post, I now have to include myself in that category!

Since that earlier post, there have been a number of public opinion polls published and most (to a greater or lesser extent) showing the gaps between the main parties narrowing – so exciting times for political junkies like me!

The media narrative now is that we are in hung parliament territory, and indeed on the face of it, that is precisely where we are. Most commentators will tell you that, because of the electoral system, the Conservatives will need an 11% or 12% lead over Labour on polling day to be certain of a small overall majority. Today’s poll for the Sunday Times shows the Tory lead at just 6%, the lowest level with YouGov since 2008.

On a uniform swing, that poll would leave the Conservatives over 30 seats short of an overall majority, and only around 10 seats ahead of Labour. Of course, there are a few caveats here, not least that there isn’t going to be a uniform swing. Results will differ from region to region, seat by seat, and largely down to local factors.

Indeed this is starting to show through in more detailed polling. The assumption has to date been that the Tories are doing much better in the marginal seats they have to win than in constituencies like mine, which are completely off their political radar. Having said that, there was an interesting set of polls published by ICM/Kindle Research yesterday for the three Brighton and Hove constituencies showing that Labour has pulled ahead of the Conservatives in all three seats. These are precisely the kind of constituencies David Cameron must win.

So on that basis how hung will our next parliament be? On paper, it currently looks a likely outcome that no party will have a majority after the election. But so too, if we throw our minds back, did the 1992 election and yet the Tory government held on with a 21 seat majority in the end.

Our first past the post electoral system actually makes hung parliaments very difficult to achieve – though not impossible. Will 2010 be another 1992 or will it be another February 1974, the only post-war election with an inconclusive result?

Time will tell when Britain votes on March 25^th, April 8^th, April 15^th, May 6^th, June 3^rd. *Delete as appropriate depending on this week’s rumours (the date of the election itself is a whole separate post!!!). In the meantime, we’ll just have to be patient and obsess over a few more polls!

Since I posted this earlier today, He’s Spartacus has added his views on the subject here

Brighton and Hove Kindle Research Polls – Feb 2010:

	LAB	CON	GREEN	LD
Pavilion	41% (+5)	25% (+2)	19% (-3)	8% (-8)
Kemptown	38% (-1)	36% (+2)	13% (+7)	11% (-6)
Hove	38% (+1)	34% (-2)	10% (+2)	10% (-8)

Latest National Polls:

		CON	LAB	LD	Con Lead
YouGov	21^st Feb	39%	33%	17%	+6%
ComRes	21^st Feb	38%	30%	20%	+8%
YouGov	18^th Feb	39%	32%	18%	+7%
YouGov	17^th Feb	39%	30%	18%	+9%
ComRes	11^th Feb	40%	29%	21%	+11%
ICM	4^th Feb	39%	30%	20%	+9%

Tags [ Conservative, Election, Hung Parliament, Labour, LibDem, Opinion Polls, parliament ]

Categories [ Opinion Polls, UK Politics ]

Comments [ 13 ]

Poll Position?

February 7th, 2010 by Andrew Gwynne

Ok, the picture has nothing at all to do with the article other than it fits the title nicely! (it’s a screen shot of one of my favourite early 1980s computer games – Pole Position – on the Atari 2600).

All politicians will tell you they don’t look at opinion polls; that the only poll that counts is the real election. You’ll have heard all that before, I’m sure! Firstly, don’t you believe it… if politicians didn’t concern themselves with such trivia, why then do the various polling organisations do so much work privately for political parties?

That aside, as we approach the General Election, both politicians and the media will become ever more obsessed with a one percent drop or rise in a particular party’s poll ratings. So just what can we gauge from the polls?

Firstly, it is clear that the Conservatives have been ahead of Labour consistently since their 2007 party conference, often cited as the reason why the planned ’snap’ election that autumn was pulled. Their support peaked in 2008 at round 49 percent and has steadily dropped back to just below 40 percent. Likewise, Labour’s lowest points were in the aftermath of the 10p tax abolition in 2008 and during the depths of the MPs’ expenses scandal in 2009, where sometimes less than a quarter of the electorate supported the governing party when asked.

The situation has changed considerably since Labour’s painful drubbing in last June’s European elections. In part this is because Gordon Brown has been exuding a degree of confidence recently that was sadly missing through most of 2008 and 2009. Ironically, I think the failed coup by Hoon and Hewitt has been good for him. He can now focus on the real fight ahead without constantly having to look over his shoulder. As a result, Labour’s ratings are now pretty much back above 30 percent.

As the polls stand now, it would appear we are headed into the territory of a hung parliament. The Sunday Times today even reports that the Queen is being advised on her constitutional role in the event of such an outcome.

Of course, all this assumes there will be a uniform swing across all seats (which isn’t going to happen). It also assumes the polls are correct, though they are all showing pretty consistent trends at the minute. Certainly the pollsters now factor in for ‘shy’ respondents, something they didn’t do back in 1992 when all the polls pointed to a small Labour majority or, at least, a hung parliament with Neil Kinnock leading the largest party.

As if you needed a reminder, the actual result in that contest was a Conservative government re-elected with a majority of 21 seats. In fact the only thing ‘red’ on that (for me, rather depressing) election night, seemed to be the faces of the pollsters!

The last five polls: