A few weeks back, I did warn you that politicians were obsessed by the polls, and particularly as an election approaches. I suppose after this post, I now have to include myself in that category!
Since that earlier post, there have been a number of public opinion polls published and most (to a greater or lesser extent) showing the gaps between the main parties narrowing – so exciting times for political junkies like me!
The media narrative now is that we are in hung parliament territory, and indeed on the face of it, that is precisely where we are. Most commentators will tell you that, because of the electoral system, the Conservatives will need an 11% or 12% lead over Labour on polling day to be certain of a small overall majority. Today’s poll for the Sunday Times shows the Tory lead at just 6%, the lowest level with YouGov since 2008.
On a uniform swing, that poll would leave the Conservatives over 30 seats short of an overall majority, and only around 10 seats ahead of Labour. Of course, there are a few caveats here, not least that there isn’t going to be a uniform swing. Results will differ from region to region, seat by seat, and largely down to local factors.
Indeed this is starting to show through in more detailed polling. The assumption has to date been that the Tories are doing much better in the marginal seats they have to win than in constituencies like mine, which are completely off their political radar. Having said that, there was an interesting set of polls published by ICM/Kindle Research yesterday for the three Brighton and Hove constituencies showing that Labour has pulled ahead of the Conservatives in all three seats. These are precisely the kind of constituencies David Cameron must win.
So on that basis how hung will our next parliament be? On paper, it currently looks a likely outcome that no party will have a majority after the election. But so too, if we throw our minds back, did the 1992 election and yet the Tory government held on with a 21 seat majority in the end.
Our first past the post electoral system actually makes hung parliaments very difficult to achieve – though not impossible. Will 2010 be another 1992 or will it be another February 1974, the only post-war election with an inconclusive result?
Time will tell when Britain votes on March 25th, April 8th, April 15th, May 6th, June 3rd. *Delete as appropriate depending on this week’s rumours (the date of the election itself is a whole separate post!!!). In the meantime, we’ll just have to be patient and obsess over a few more polls!
Since I posted this earlier today, He’s Spartacus has added his views on the subject here
Brighton and Hove Kindle Research Polls – Feb 2010:
| LAB | CON | GREEN | LD | |
| Pavilion | 41% (+5) | 25% (+2) | 19% (-3) | 8% (-8) |
| Kemptown | 38% (-1) | 36% (+2) | 13% (+7) | 11% (-6) |
| Hove | 38% (+1) | 34% (-2) | 10% (+2) | 10% (-8) |
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Latest National Polls:
| CON | LAB | LD | Con Lead | ||
| YouGov | 21st Feb | 39% | 33% | 17% | +6% |
| ComRes | 21st Feb | 38% | 30% | 20% | +8% |
| YouGov | 18th Feb | 39% | 32% | 18% | +7% |
| YouGov | 17th Feb | 39% | 30% | 18% | +9% |
| ComRes | 11th Feb | 40% | 29% | 21% | +11% |
| ICM | 4th Feb | 39% | 30% | 20% | +9% |
Andrew, what would you saying if you were a Tory MP? How would you be presenting this information??
I would be saying the same. The fact is the race appears to be tightening. My point is that the electoral system doesn’t favour the hung parliament scenario the media is currently predicting. I think there will be some interesting results in individual seats across the country and it is in those seats that the final outcome will be determined.
You have to factor in the bounce David Cameron will get when the election is actually called. The simple fact is the PM is never going to win the personalities battle against Cameron (or for that matter Clegg) and that has to be worth a few % points. Comment…
A tight race is good for both main parties. It is no coincidence that turnout was higher in 1992 than in 1997, 2001 and 2005 – because there was a real race on. Labour support which was lost over 10p tax and other issues, is returning and solidifying. Tory support is solid too, as there’s a reason to vote for them this time round (if you’re that inclined). What will be interesting is what happens to the Lib Dem vote and the minor parties like UKIP and BNP.
The BNP aren’t a minor party — they are an insignificant one. Lib Dem support always solidifies at election time and I think Nick Clegg will do well. Do you disagree?
Solomon, I’m not so sure this time. The Lib Dems are certainly hard to shift once they have won council and parliamentary seats, but many of their existing seats are potentially vulnerable to the Conservative increase in share of the vote and tactical unwind. Labour lost about 1 million votes to the Lib Dems in 2005 (over tuition fees, Iraq etc) and in part this was because those voters considered it ’safe’ to vote that way because there would likely still be a Labour Government as an end result. In a tighter election people become much more focused on the issues and voting habits become much more polarised as a consequence. I think it is quite possible the Lib Dems could be squeezed by Labour and the Tories, as happened in October 1974.
A calm, sober assessment of the situation, Andrew, unlike my own. Please understand, it’s my job to be angry.
Thanks for the link.
Nothing wrong with a bit of passion in politics. We live in interesting times, whether on the left or right… elections are stressful, but fun!
Why is a hung parliament so bad? If it forces bipartisanship and cooperation that cannot be a bad thing can it?
My blog doesn’t say hung parliaments are bad, it says the electoral system we have make them an unlikely outcome. Personally, I prefer political coalitions and programmes for government to be put together before an election rather than afterwards.
Do you see this as a realistic possibility? I am sure, when the election proper is called things will change. I think Labour have a much better grass-roots campaign machine and I think this will make all the difference.
The only information we have to assess this are the published polls which almost universally point to a hung parliament at the next election. Do I think it could happen, yes – clearly it could; do I think it will? Probably not, because we don’t vote uniformly in every seat according to the national polls. You will get big swings in some seats, producing quirky and unexpected results, in others MPs will hold on against the tide due to local factors. Organisation, as you suggest will be the key to some MPs holding on who ordinarily would be swept away. That’s why I think the Lib Dems and smaller parties may be squeezed in this election.
As an historical perspective, my predecessor as MP, Andrew Bennett, was first elected in February 1974 for the then constituency of Stockport North. He won the seat from the Conservatives with around a 250 vote majority and increased his majority to around 1,800 in the October 1974 election. But against all the odds (and against the Thatcher surge) in 1979 he was re-elected with around a 1,300 majority purely because he squeezed the Liberal vote to support Labour.
I predict a Conservative majority of around 45 based on poll averages but I accept there are flaws in that too.