Last night I watched Ashes to Ashes on BBC1. For those who didn’t get to see it, it is set in 1983, and the storyline last night was linked to the General Election of that year.
The relevance to this post was a piece of footage of the election, showing Roy Jenkins, one of the gang of four who left Labour in 1981 to form the Social Democratic Party; The BBC news commentator said “Mr Jenkins is buoyed up by recent polls placing the Alliance ahead of Labour”… ominous stuff following the first-ever televised leaders’ debate this year.
As I type, the dust has barely settled on the YouGov/Sun poll last night showing a massive bounce for the Lib Dems, just pushing Labour into third place. Now there are reports of two other polls showing a similar trend (though ICM still has Labour in second place).
Of course none of us really knows how the debate will affect the dynamics of the remainder of the campaign. Can the Lib Dems solidify their position, or have they peaked too early? Who knows? And frankly it is pointless speculating. What we have seen is our politics (and this election) getting interesting. When I wrote my blog piece on the February polls, and the speculation of a hung parliament, it was just that – speculation. Now it is looking more and more likely as an outcome.
Even before the debates, the Tory leads in most polls were not quite enough to deliver them a majority in the new House of Commons on a uniform swing (though with local factors and a concentrated effort in the marginals and a non-uniform swing in key seats it was actually possible). Now, with each of the main parties appearing to be very close to each other with around a third of the votes each, a hung parliament is looking very likely indeed.
Back in 1983, and because of our electoral system, the surge in support for the SDP/Liberal Alliance didn’t translate into seats. It did however help to deliver a massive Conservative majority by depriving Labour of seats it needed to hold (and others it needed to win back which it had lost in 1979), and it pretty much kept them out of power until the Blair landslide of 1997.
If the current poll trends are to be believed (and they may settle back down into the pre-debate positions in a few days), and because of the same electoral system, Labour on around 30% would win just short of 300 seats and would be the largest party in the House of Commons. The Tories and the Lib Dems also on around 30% would win something like 200 and 100 seats respectively.
Unlike in 1983, the present Lib Dem surge is actually a disaster for the Tories. Undoubtedly, if replicated in the election, the current polls would spell the end of any hope of a Conservative majority. The Cameron project will have spectacularly failed. The scale of the Tory slump is really clear when yesterday’s YouGov/Sun poll is compared with the YouGov/Sun poll from just TWO days earlier:
14th April Con: 41%, Lab 32%, LD 18%
16th April Con: 33%, Lab 28%, LD 30%
17th April Con: 33%, Lab 30%, LD 29% (Update at 9pm)
Nothing yet is written in stone. There’s still two debates and three weeks left to go. The Alliance surge of 1983 didn’t in the end ‘break the mould’ of British politics. Will 2010 be different?
This is a great post… really interesting stuff. How would a hung Parliament likely play out? Would the Tories and LibDem form a pact?
Nobody really knows. I guess that Clegg, sensing a second General Election could be held within the next 12 months, won’t want to commit to anything formal and will support either a minority Labour or Conservative administration in the House of Commons on an issue-by-issue basis until it falls. Having said that, I might be completely wrong and they may formally support Labour or the Tories in either a pact, similar to 1976-79, or in a formal coalition as in Wales and previously in Scotland. Watch this space! We live in interesting times.
Just a thought.
How many people with learning difficuties have you approached with your campaign? Asked of their opinion? What they feel is important to them? Are they voting? (Not forgeting what the goverment is or will be doing for them)
Don’t forget they have the right to vote. Politics does efffect this group of people as it does with all of us. When savings have to be made in budgets this group of people are one of the first in line to be effected.
Just a thought
Phil
My guess would be that if all three parties ended up with a very similar share of the vote but such a huge disparity in seats as you suggest, the new parliament would have such little credibility – in fact, there would be such an outcry – that there would be irresistible pressure to reform the voting system as a matter of urgency and hold a new election. Apart from anything else, British democracy would be a laughing stock around the world.
This election is a big choice for people. It’s popular to say “the parties have converged in the centre and they’re just fighting out the election on the fringes”. I am of the opinion that is not true. I believe that this election represents a choice because Mr Brown is more of a Socialist than he likes to admit and I equally Mr Cameron is more of old school Tory that he likes to admit.
Any updates on the opinion polls?
There are several polls published every day at the moment, UK Polling Report is a good website bringing them all together.
Andrew… Google Reader just flagged your blog as ‘out of date’ because you haven’t posted in 9 days! Your fans miss you (well I do). What happened to keeping us abreast of your campaign (not a pledge broken I hope)
Sal
Worry not… I have my next post in mind. Am just a wee bit busy. It will be on soon!!!!