Ok, the picture has nothing at all to do with the article other than it fits the title nicely! (it’s a screen shot of one of my favourite early 1980s computer games – Pole Position – on the Atari 2600).
All politicians will tell you they don’t look at opinion polls; that the only poll that counts is the real election. You’ll have heard all that before, I’m sure! Firstly, don’t you believe it… if politicians didn’t concern themselves with such trivia, why then do the various polling organisations do so much work privately for political parties?
That aside, as we approach the General Election, both politicians and the media will become ever more obsessed with a one percent drop or rise in a particular party’s poll ratings. So just what can we gauge from the polls?
Firstly, it is clear that the Conservatives have been ahead of Labour consistently since their 2007 party conference, often cited as the reason why the planned ’snap’ election that autumn was pulled. Their support peaked in 2008 at round 49 percent and has steadily dropped back to just below 40 percent. Likewise, Labour’s lowest points were in the aftermath of the 10p tax abolition in 2008 and during the depths of the MPs’ expenses scandal in 2009, where sometimes less than a quarter of the electorate supported the governing party when asked.
The situation has changed considerably since Labour’s painful drubbing in last June’s European elections. In part this is because Gordon Brown has been exuding a degree of confidence recently that was sadly missing through most of 2008 and 2009. Ironically, I think the failed coup by Hoon and Hewitt has been good for him. He can now focus on the real fight ahead without constantly having to look over his shoulder. As a result, Labour’s ratings are now pretty much back above 30 percent.
As the polls stand now, it would appear we are headed into the territory of a hung parliament. The Sunday Times today even reports that the Queen is being advised on her constitutional role in the event of such an outcome.
Of course, all this assumes there will be a uniform swing across all seats (which isn’t going to happen). It also assumes the polls are correct, though they are all showing pretty consistent trends at the minute. Certainly the pollsters now factor in for ‘shy’ respondents, something they didn’t do back in 1992 when all the polls pointed to a small Labour majority or, at least, a hung parliament with Neil Kinnock leading the largest party.
As if you needed a reminder, the actual result in that contest was a Conservative government re-elected with a majority of 21 seats. In fact the only thing ‘red’ on that (for me, rather depressing) election night, seemed to be the faces of the pollsters!
The last five polls:
| CON | LAB | LD | ||
| ICM | 4th Feb | 39% | 30% | 20% |
| ComRes | 31st Jan | 38% | 31% | 19% |
| BPIX | 30th Jan | 39% | 30% | 18% |
| YouGov | 29th Jan | 38% | 31% | 19% |
| Ipsos Mori | 28th Jan | 40% | 32% | 16% |
First off, fantastic taste in games, Pole Position is a classic. Secondly, good post (refreshingly honest which is what we want to hear from our Politicians) and your observations as to why the polls are changing in Labours favour are interesting if not a little one sided (I’ll forgive you that).
Some of the credit/blame for the poll shift HAS to fall to David Cameron – a number of small things, the poster, the ‘new policy every day thing and his most recent disagreement with Ken Clarke. They’ve all contributed to the poll shift. Do you agree?
Thanks. Yes Pole Position was always one of my favourite Atari games, along with Jungle Hunt! (am showing my age now) Yes you are quite right about the Tories’ dreadful start to 2010 and that has certainly had an impact on their poll ratings too… may post an article on that later this week. We’ll see!!
The Labour Party are in better shape than a few weeks ago for sure but I still don’t think it’s enough to retain the governement. When you go to the country people will vote for change and perhaps Labour will re-group and come back in four or five years even stronger than before. Or perhaps you’ll win and then I am just a bag of hot air!
Certainly “time for a change” is a powerful message against any 13-year-old government. That was the same in 1992 for Labour fighting a 13-year-old Tory government; but if there are seeds of uncertainty about the opposition party (as there was with Labour in ‘92 and certainly as there is with Cameron’s Conservatives now) then the question will be whether current ‘undecideds’ plump for the devil they know or the devil they don’t, in the privacy of the polling booth. Back in 1992 that worked in John Major’s favour. Who knows what will happen in two months time – or what the polls will be by the time of the election? Just when you think things are going well, Macmillan’s damned ‘events’ tend to get in the way – as both Gordon Brown and David Cameron have found in the past!