If a week is a long time in politics, then a full five year parliament is an eternity.

In the immediate aftermath of the 2010 General Election, commentators speculated that the Conservative-Liberal Democrat Coalition government wouldn’t last; that this marriage of convenience would crumble under the pressure of tough decisions in office.

Now I never subscribed to that scenario, although it is still very possible. The Coalition is undoubtedly fragile and there are two competing agendas with people in both parties (let alone the Labour opposition) who want the whole project to collapse in failure. It reminds me of Dr Doolitle’s push-me-pull-you.

For the Lib Dems, the challenge is to remain a distinctive and relevant political entity. The risk is they become seen as one with the Conservatives, and particularly so with every unpopular decision made. Is it possible, over a five year term, to maintain a degree of independence whilst equally maintaining effective collective cabinet government?

The Lib Dems like to portray themselves as the ‘nice guys’ in British politics. When they have to start making very unpopular decisions in government, how will they cope? Presumably this is where Simon Hughes’s ludicrous suggestion at still having Lib Dem ‘shadows’ despite being in government (as well as to snaffle some opposition Short money) comes from.

But the fragility of the Coaltion should be a worry for Labour too, because it breeds complacency. There were quite senior people back in the early 1990s, following the party’s fourth consecutive defeat at the polls, who wanted to halt the whole process of ‘modernisation’. Their theory was that Labour needed just one more heave to propel it to power, irrespective of the policy platform which had been resoundly rejected by the electorate.

Thankfully, Tony Blair accelerated the process of modernisation, setting the foundation for Labour to govern for thirteen years. As then, Labour should not now put off making the changes it needs to make to win back the support it lost in 2010. To sit back and hope for the Coalition to implode would be disastrous for Labour. The party needs not just to be a credible opposition to the Coalition, but a real alternative government to it.

Of course, there is just a possibility, too, that in five years time the Coalition- having held it together and directed Britain through the economic morass – will have re-found political popularity. If that happens then people may start to believe that a more consensual style of politics, transcending the traditional left-right splits, has worked and that Britain, perhaps with a new electoral system, will have genuinely entered into a new era.

We shall see!